The thing with numbers is, depending how you look at them they can drive you “Crazy”! I have recently been asked by clients and associates if San Diego County property values are stabilizing and I see mixed market influences. The numbers I am sharing here are believed to be accurate but need to be published and audited to prove the conclusions I make are accurate. That sounds like a fancy disclosure to say the numbers are not to be believed. So here are some numbers.
These are the numbers of Properties that showed to be bank owned in the MLS in the last month.
Oct 1-7 184
Oct 8-14 193
Oct 15-21 200
Oct 22-28 217
Oct 29-4 205
Nov 5-11 202
Now let’s look at the number of available homes in the MLS from a Historical Perspective.
December 2008 average homes for sale = 15,116
August 11, 2009 total listings = 11,457
Sept 22, 2009 Active = 8,149
and as of Nov 18, 7,955
To me this demonstrates a move to a sellers market where the number of available properties is falling. But not so fast, there are stories in the news called “shadow inventory.” , this term refers to homes that the Banks have in the process of foreclosure.
On the trustee-sale auction list there are 10,580 properties. If foreclosures and trustee sales stopped right now, at the current rate of properties introduced to the market each week (about 200) here’s a years supply right here. If you visit www.NumberOneInSanDiego.com and utilize their foreclosure search system you will see that most NOTICE OF TRUSTEE SALES in San Diego County have been suspended this will mean that more property will eventually arrive into the “Shadow Inventory”.
Here is where I think we are in San Diego County. The banks are metering the available inventory to the market so as not to create a flood and lower prices further. It is my belief that rates are low, prices are great and you can not build a home for what you can buy one for.
So are you crazy yet, cause these numbers are currently so complex that they exceed the old market standard of “Supply and Demand” but it’s the market the regulators and banks have created. Short Sales look like they are going to be the method more and more banks and borrowers utilize as adjustments have to be made. Ok enought for “Driving me Crazy”